P. Capros, L. Mantzos, V. Papandreou and N. Tasios, (2008), "Model - based Analysis of the 2008 EU Policy Package on Climate Change and Renewables", study carried out for DG Environment
The study was carried out between July 2007 and January 2008 and the results have been used by the Impact Assessment working document of the European Commission SEC (2008) 85/3. The model-based scenarios were constructed using the Baseline scenario of November 2007 published by DG TREN (Trends to 2030 - update 2007) . All figures up to 2005 are based on Eurostat statistics (for non CO2 GHG on UNFCCC statistics) and for time periods beyond 2005 they are based on the PRIMES model and the GAINS model of IIASA (for non-CO2 GHGs) results.
The PRIMES energy system model has been used as an impact assessment tool. A large series of tentative target differentiation schemes have been evaluated with respect to their implications on the Member-States’ energy systems and in terms of energy costs and prices. The use of the PRIMES model ensured consistency of the analysis given that the targets induce simultaneous and complex changes in the energy system, compared to business- as-usual. Regarding the non-CO2 GHGs the analysis was carried out by using the GAINS3 model results of IIASA.
The model-based analysis of the Climate Change Action and Renewables policy package proposed by the European Commission on January 23, 2008 was based on a set of energy system scenarios quantified by using the PRIMES model. The GAINS model complemented the analysis by quantifying the possibilities for reduction of non CO2 greenhouse gases.
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