Capros P., S. Papathanassiou, J.-E. Samouilidis (1985) "Energy Supply Decisions: Multiple Criteria and Multiple Strategies in an Uncertain Future"
Paper presented at the 22emes Journees Europeenes sur l' Aide a la Decision Multicritere, 10-11 Octobre , Chania, Crete.
This paper deals with the energy supply decision problems and proposes a general methodological approach. Several inherent features of energy supply decision problems are taken into account, namely, the presence of multiple criteria, uncertainties about system's future evolution and decision group's conflicting strategies. Mutlicriteria analysis is proposed as a natural extension to the use of common energy analysis models, since the latter are absolutely necessary to the study of system's transformation and to the evaluation of candidate actions. Each strategy is simulated by a system of criteria weights and each scenario is composed by values of exogenous parameters influencing the evaluations on the criteria functions. ELECTRE-III ranking technique is applied conditionally to a scenario and thus performances of actions for each scenario are obtained. The final order of actions is obtained by applying ELECTRE-III ranking technique with weights reflecting the non-desirability degrees of the scenarios. This procedure is performed separately for each strategy and is repeated for several compromise strategies standing between a couple of conflicting strategies. This is considered as an analogy to the trade off analysis.
Paper available on request (hard copy only)
