Pantelis Capros, Nikolaos Tasios, Evi Apostolaki, Alessia De Vita, (forthcoming in 2012), "Analysing the bio-energy supply system in the context of the 20-20-20 targets and the 2050 decarbonisation targets in the EU", Biofuels, Bioproducts & Biorefining, Wiley Online Library.
This paper presents the methodology and the main energy-related projections for various scenarios quantified with the PRIMES Biomass model. The scenarios quantified the impacts of different scenario contexts (only Climate and Energy Package targets and long-term decarbonisation targets) and/or of different policies and measures on the biomass supply system.
The analysis shows that the demand for bio-energy commodities in the case of achieving only the Climate and Energy Package targets- so called Reference scenario- can be met mostly with currently known technologies; the assessment has also shown that demand projected by the National Renewable Energy Action Plans (NREAP) could be met for most bio-energy commodity types with known technologies, however some issues have been identified regarding the mix of commodities. The 2050 decarbonisation objectives are also found to be feasible as far as biomass contribution is concerned, but for this considerable development of 2nd generation technologies will be necessary. However, if sustainability criteria are stricter the achievement of the 2020 targets is found to be problematic, although in the long-term towards 2050 the effect is found to be lower, thanks to 2nd generation technology developments. In case demand for biofuels in transportation increases beyond standard projections, due to e.g. delay in transport electrification, was found to require even stronger development of 2nd generation technologies, and that despite this we found that the sustainability of such scenario would raise concerns referring to high land use for energy crops and high level of imports.
