Specific Contract No 1 under Framework service contract regarding long-range energy system modelling for the period up to 2050, for European Commission, DG ENER
The objective of this Specific Contract is modelling support in relation to the new Reference Scenario 2016 as well as development of scenarios for policies on energy efficiency and renewable energies. The modelling and reporting covers EU-28 as a whole and each of 28 MS individually.
The work performed under this contract includes the following among others: a) Projection of world energy activity and resulting international fuel prices, using the PROMETHEUS model b) Macroeconomic Projection using the GEM-E3 model 2) Updated of all model databases and corrections of the energy balances 3) Developments of the new/substantially updated PRIMES modules: a) Transport activity projection-new econometric model b) Gas module c) Power generation module d) Industrial module e) CHP and boiler module f) residential and building services module.
The project included the preparation of the new forthcoming "EU Reference Scenario 2016" publication, which is an update of the previous trend Scenario published in 2013; the preparation of the publication included preparation of the results in a format for the public, writing of the text and graphic visualization of the results. It focuses on the EU energy system, transport and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions developments, including specific sections on emission trends not related to energy- process emissions-, and on the various interactions among policies in these sectors. Its time horizon as in the 2013 version is up to 2050 and it includes all EU28 Member States individually. The Reference Scenario 2016 acts as a benchmark of current policy and market trends. As such, it can help to inform future policy debate and policy making.
The project further included the preparation of various policy scenarios aiming at long term emission reductions –so-called decarbonisation scenarios. For this purpose scenario specifications were developed in collaboration with the Commission services. Interpretation of results and additional explanations were also provided.
