L. Mantzos and P. Capros (2006), "Scenarios on energy efficiency and renewables", European Commission-Directorate General for Energy and Transport, July 2006. Office for official publications of the European Communities, 2006, Luxembourg, ISBN 92-79-02652-6
Prepared by: Dr. L.Mantzos and Prof. P. Capros
Energy efficiency and renewables are central to EU and Member States’ energy and climate policies as they contribute substantially towards reducing CO2 emissions, helping to meet EU’s international obligations, either through curbing energy demand or through providing alternative carbon free supplies. Similarly they improve energy security and can contribute to enhanced competitiveness. Energy efficiency, as set out in the 2005 Green Paper on energy efficiency,1 has become a cornerstone of EU energy policy contributing to all three main energy policy objectives: competitiveness, energy security and environment protection. The importance of energy efficiency and renewables policies is further emphasised in the recently published Green Paper on a European strategy for sustainable, competitive and secure energy.2 Therefore the Commission has undertaken a number of policies and measures towards improving energy efficiency and increasing the contribution of renewable energy sources. The following alternative scenarios simulate the possible outcomes of strengthened policies at both Community and Member State levels to achieve better energy efficiency and a higher share of renewables. These scenarios illustrate possible alternative pathways for the evolution of the EU energy system in the horizon to 2030. For this purpose three different cases have been examined:
- The “Energy efficiency” case takes into account all energy efficiency policies tabled by the European Commission. The modelling assumes that through Community and national/local action energy consumers improve their perception of energy costs so that more efficient energy solution are chosen despite of higher initial costs overcoming also to a large extent issues related to lack of information.
- The “High renewables” case assumes that additional incentives are provided both to energy consumers and energy producers so that the global indicative target of a 12% contribution from renewable energy sources to gross energy consumption in 2010 is reached. Furthermore, strengthening of these incentives beyond 2010 is assumed towards achieving a contribution from renewable energy sources to gross energy consumption close to 20% in 2020.
- The “Combined high renewables and efficiency” case, which combines the assumptions of the two cases mentioned above, explores their aggregate effect on the evolution of the EU-25 energy system and allows for an in depth analysis of their possible synergies as well as any trade-offs.
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"Scenarios on energy efficiency and renewables"
