L. Mantzos and P. Capros (2006), "Scenarios on high oil and gas prices", European Commission-Directorate General for Energy and Transport, September 2006. Office for official publications of the European Communities, 2006, Luxembourg, ISBN 92-79-02798-0
Prepared by: Dr. L.Mantzos and Prof. P. Capros
For the last few years, the EU has experienced rising import prices for oil and gas, which have reached in summer 2006 unprecedented levels in nominal terms. Oil and gas prices may continue rising and it is no longer only a remote possibility that the oil price could reach a level of 100 $ per barrel in money of 2005 in say 2030. In any case, it is worthwhile to examine the energy consequences of such possible developments given that energy import prices are one key driver for the development of EU-25 energy demand and supply. In the past gas prices have followed oil prices rather closely. While this cannot be excluded as a possible future development even under very high oil prices, an alternative development might materialise, in which gas prices would decouple somewhat more form oil prices. Therefore two alternative scenarios have been examined, addressing different pathways for the evolution of the world energy system and their impact on energy import prices for the EU-25:
- The “Medium gas and soaring oil prices” case has oil prices close to 100$ per barrel in real terms on the assumption of higher economic growth in parts of Asia (China, India and other Asian developing countries) in combination to relatively less abundant resources than in the Baseline1 scenario. Furthermore, this case is characterised by the assumption that gas prices are no longer linked with the oil price.
- In the “Soaring oil and gas prices” case with the same oil price path, the assumptions as regards economic growth and availability of fossil fuel resources are identical to those of the “Medium gas and soaring oil prices” case; but gas prices remain linked to the evolution of the oil price.
For more information you can download the following related file(s):
"Scenarios on high oil and gas prices"
