Capros P., L. Mantzos, E.L. Vouyoukas and D. Petrellis (1999) "European Energy and CO2 Emissions trends to 2020, with Primes V.2", "Bulletin of Science, Technology and Society" Journal, Vol.19, No 6, December 1999, Sage Publications Inc.
The purpose of this paper is to present a summary of a consistent EU energy and energy related emissions outlook for the period to 2020. The material presented here is based on quantitative analysis and on a process of communication with and feedback from a number of energy experts and organisations. All the results presented for EU energy trends are based on the PRIMES partial equilibrium model for the European energy system, version 2. The PRIMES model provides simulation of the energy system, the decisions of the agents and the markets, covering in detail several sectors, uses and technologies. The results of this analysis indicate that EU will not meet the obligations for greenhouse gas emission reduction it undertook in Kyoto unless it introduces policy initiatives for the abatement of energy-related emissions. Although the industrial, tertiary, household and transportation sectors can all make significant contributions to CO2 emissions reductions, the electricity and steam generation sector appears to offer the greatest potential because of its relative flexibility in terms of technology and fuel sector. Finally, when the only criterion for emissions reductions is economic efficiency, our analysis indicates that reduction levels differ significantly among EU countries.
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