Assimakopoulos V., P. Gerondoukos, P. Capros and J.-E. Samouilidis (1986) "A new modelling approach for forecasting the residential energy demand"
Paper presented at the VIII Congress of the European Society of Operations Research, EURO, 16-19 Sept., Lisbon, Portugal.
This paper presents a new modelling approach for forecasting the residential energy demand. It consists of two procedures, the structural analysis and the construction of a forecasting model. The structural analysis is obtained by using multivariate statistical techniques on cross section polled data. The principle components analysis and the discriminant analysis are the methods used. The model construction is based on a quantitative response model of a logit formulation simulating the household decisions. The estimation of the energy consumption equations is following and afterwards the assembling part. An application for the Cyclades region is also presented. The model is applied for the period 1985-2000 period. Scenarios and results are presented in the paper together with a number of suggestions for further research.
Paper available on request (hard copy only)
