Analyzing the bio-energy supply system in the context of the 20-20-20 targets and the 2050 decarbonization targets in the EU (Nikolaos Tasios, Evi Apostolaki, Pantelis Capros*, Alessia De Vita)
This paper presents the methodology and the main energy-related projections for various scenarios quantified with the PRIMES biomass model. The PRIMES biomass model quantifies scenarios for the biomass supply system based on a given demand for bio-energy commodities which is exogenous to the model. The scenarios quantified the impacts of different scenario contexts (only climate and energy package targets and long-term decarbonization targets) and/or of different policies and measures on the biomass supply system. The analysis shows that the demand for bio-energy commodities in the case of achieving only the climate and energy package targets can be met mostly with currently known technologies; the assessment has also shown that demand projected by the National Renewable Energy Action Plans (NREAPs) could be met for most bio-energy commodity types with known technologies; however, some issues have been identified regarding the mix of commodities. The 2050 decarbonization objectives are found to be feasible as far as biomass contribution is concerned, but for this, considerable development of advanced technologies will be necessary. However, if sustainability criteria are stricter the achievement of the 2020 targets is found problematic; although in the long-term toward 2050 the effect is lower, thanks to advanced technology developments. In case demand for biofuels in transportation increases beyond standard projections, due to for example a delay in transport electrification, stronger development of advanced technologies was found necessary. © 2012 Society of Chemical Industry and John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
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