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E3MLab Models

E3MLab develops and maintains several sector-specific models, including electricity-market specific models. The two major energy models developed and maintained for all the European Union member-states are PRIMES (energy market equilibrium engineering-economic model used for the long term and the study of structural changes in energy markets) and GEM-E3 (general equilibrium macro-economic model applied to World regions and to EU specific countries too). Moreover E3MLab has developed and maintains a stochastic world energy/technology model PROMETHEUS and a large-scale energy demand and supply model the MENA-EDS.

  • The PRIMES Model

    The PRIMES energy model simulates the European energy system and markets on a country-by-country basis and across Europe for the entire energy system. The model provides projections of detailed energy balances, both for demand and supply, CO2 emissions, investment in demand and supply, energy technology penetration, prices and costs. The model produces projections over the period from 2015 to 2050 in 5-years intervals. The data are based on Eurostat statistics for the years 2000-2010. The PRIMES model covers individual projections for the EU28 Member States, and and all European countries. The PRIMES model simulates a multi-market equilibrium solution for energy supply and demand and for ETS and other potential markets by explicitly calculating prices which balance demand and supply. PRIMES simulates demand and supply behaviour by agent (sector) under different assumptions regarding economic development, emission and other policy constraints, technology change and other drivers. The simulation of agents behaviour is based on microeconomic founded modelling which includes technical – engineering oriented – constraints.

    The PRIMES model has served to quantify energy outlook scenarios for DG TREN and DG ENER (Trends publications since 1990), impact assessment studies for DG ENV, DG MOVE, DG CLIMA and DG ENER and others, including Energy Roadmap to 2050 (2011-2012) and Policies to 2030 (2013). PRIMES has been also used at national level for governments, companies and other institutions including for EURELECTRIC in the Power Choices strategic study.

  • The GEM-E3 Model

    The GEM-E3 (World and Europe) model is an applied general equilibrium model, simultaneously representing World regions and European countries, linked through endogenous bilateral trade flows and environmental flows. The European model includes all member states individually and Switzerland. The world model version includes 38 countries/regions where all EU member states and the largest economies globally (USA, China, Brazil, Russia, Canada, India etc.) are individually represented. GEM-E3 aims at covering the interactions between the economy, the energy system and the environment. It is a comprehensive model of the economy, the productive sectors, consumption, price formation of commodities, labour and capital, investment and dynamic growth. The model is dynamic, recursive over time, driven by accumulation of capital and equipment. Technology progress is explicitly represented in the production function, either exogenous or endogenous, depending on R&D expenditure by private and public sector and taking into account spillovers effects. The current GEM-E3 version has been updated to the GTAP8 database (base year 2007) and has been updated with the latest Eurostat statistics for the EU Member States.

  • The PROMETHEUS Model

    The PROMETHEUS model provides detailed projections of energy demand, supply, power generation mix, energy-related carbon emissions, energy prices and investment to the future covering the global energy system disaggregated into 10 major countries/regions. PROMETHEUS contains relations and/or exogenous variables for all the main quantities, which are of interest in the context of general energy-economy-climate systems analysis. These include demographic and economic activity indicators, primary and final energy consumption by main fuel and region, power generation mix, hydrocarbon resources and international fossil fuel prices, CO2 emissions, GHG concentrations and technology dynamics for several energy technologies (including power generation options, car types for road transport, hydrogen production and end-use technologies). The model represents policy instruments for emission reduction, including both market-based instruments such as ETS carbon tax or cap and trade systems with differential application per region, and policies and measures focusing on specific carbon emitting activities.

  • The MENA-EDS Model

    MENA-EDS is a large-scale energy demand and supply model that simulates the formation of prices in energy markets, estimates the quantities demanded and supplied by the main energy system actors in an exhaustive manner, and incorporates energy related CO2 emissions, environmentally oriented policy instruments and emission abatement technologies. The model is designed for medium-term and long-term projections and produces analytical quantitative results in the form of detailed energy balances for each country.